The SAG Nominations Spark a Reshuffle
Senior Producer Perri Nemiroff is keeping you up to date on the leading contenders for 2024's Oscar for Best Supporting Actor based on her knowledge of industry trends and whispers. Check in for updates often because anything can change over the next couple of weeks.
Of all the acting categories, the 2024 Screen Actors Guild Nominations shook up the Best Supporting Actor race the most. Previously, we had five solid contenders, but only three now feel like likely nominees after the SAG had its say on Wednesday. Who’s at risk of getting cut out of the race? Let’s find out …
Here’s where things stand as of January 12th, 2024:
5 Sterling K. Brown
‘American Fiction’
8:03 
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Brown soars in Cord Jefferson's feature debut which is playing in select theaters now.
I’ve been eagerly awaiting an excellent reason to add Sterling K. Brown to this list for his work in American Fiction, and I just got it — Brown scored a SAG Awards nomination for his work in the film. On top of that, American Fiction was also nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture. Brown’s stock is on the rise, whereas I fear Charles Melton’s is on the wane despite a solid start in the awards season race. Not only did he miss out on the SAG nomination personally, but May December was completely shut out, a potential sign that that movie might not make it to Oscar night.
American Fiction
A novelist who's fed up with the establishment profiting from "Black" entertainment uses a pen name to write a book that propels him to the heart of hypocrisy and the madness he claims to disdain.
Release Date December 22, 2023 Director Cord Jefferson Cast Jeffrey Wright , Tracee Ellis Ross , Sterling K. Brown , Issa Rae , John Ortiz , Adam Brody , Leslie Uggams , erika alexander , Keith David Runtime 117 minutes4 Willem Dafoe
‘Poor Things’
5:40 
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The Screen Actors Guild has spoken, and I'm listening. I'd been predicting that Mark Ruffalo had a better chance of getting a nomination for Poor Things than his co-star, but that's changed since Willem Dafoe secured the SAG nomination and Ruffalo did not. Is there still a that chance Poor Things could score two nominations in this category with both making the cut? Maybe. Given that the film also missed out on the Best Ensemble award, I'm betting against it, though. Given that Dafoe is a beloved industry icon, just got his star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame, and grabbed a SAG nomination, he's in the stronger position of the two to get that Oscar nom.
Poor Things
The incredible tale about the fantastical evolution of Bella Baxter, a young woman brought back to life by the brilliant and unorthodox scientist Dr. Godwin Baxter.
Release Date September 8, 2023 Director Yorgos Lanthimos Cast Mark Ruffalo , Willem Dafoe , Margaret Qualley , Emma Stone3 Robert De Niro
‘Killers of the Flower Moon’
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Leonard DiCaprio may have missed out on a Screen Actors Guild nomination, but Robert De Niro did not. The acting legend has been cruising through awards season since Killers of the Flower Moon's release back in October and it looks as though he's staying the course. Thus far, in addition to his SAG nomination for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role and Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, De Niro has racked up numerous critics' organization honors including a Critics Choice nomination. The odds are that De Niro's awards season run will end with nominations, not wins. Still, being able to say he's been nominated for nine Oscars and won two is a significant achievement in and of itself.
Killers of the Flower Moon
When oil is discovered in 1920s Oklahoma under Osage Nation land, the Osage people are murdered one by one - until the FBI steps in to unravel the mystery.
2 Ryan Gosling
‘Barbie’
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Hollywood's been buzzing with Kenergy for six months, and it ain't stopping. Ryan Gosling's Oscar nomination for playing Ken in Barbie is as close to a mortal lock as possible. He's got the SAG nomination, the Critics Choice Awards nomination, a billion-dollar movie, and a pop culture phenomenon going for him. It is unlikely anything will rattle that. But then, the question becomes, does he have a shot at winning? I don't see things panning out that way. If anyone threatens my predicted frontrunner, I suspect it'll be someone we're not expecting at the moment, someone who will emerge as a come-from-behind upset during the period between the nominations announcement and Oscar night.
Barbie
A beloved doll, known for her perfect life in an idyllic, colorful world, finds herself on an unexpected journey when she starts to feel out of place. Seeking answers, she leaves her fantastical home and steps into the real world, where she experiences the highs and lows of human life. With the help of new friends, she navigates the challenges of identity and purpose, discovering the importance of authenticity and inner strength.
Release Date July 21, 2023 Director Greta Gerwig Cast Margot Robbie , Simu Liu , Ryan Gosling , Helen Mirren , Ariana Greenblatt , America Ferrera Runtime 114 minutes1 Robert Downey Jr.
‘Oppenheimer’
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As Oppenheimer continues to soar as it makes its way through the season, Best Supporting Actor is Robert Downey Jr.'s award to lose. Sure, an Oscar here would be a justified reward for a phenomenal performance in one of the year's biggest films. But it would be more than that. Granting Downey Jr. a statuette after 50-plus years in the industry would celebrate his exceptional body of work and his well-known comeback story. The Academy loves to create moments like that. Yes, anything can happen between now and March 10th, but I'd be shocked if Oppenheimer didn't remain the clear frontrunner in this category and many more.
Oppenheimer
The story of American scientist, J. Robert Oppenheimer, and his role in the development of the atomic bomb.
Release Date July 21, 2023 Director Christopher Nolan Cast Cillian Murphy , Matt Damon , Robert Downey Jr. , Emily Blunt , Alden Ehrenreich , Scott Grimes , Jason Clarke , Tony Goldwyn Runtime 180 minutesRent on Apple For predictions covering all the major categories, visit our complete Oscar prospectus here and keep coming back. This race is only just beginning.
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